Axios Crypto

January 25, 2024
Don't blame bitcoin ETFs for the price of bitcoin. Plus, GBTC collateral damage.
- Have thoughts? Let us hear them: [email protected]
Today's newsletter is 846 words, a 3-minute read.
🍊1 big thing: Hype ignores long bitcoin play
Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios
Bitcoin's fall since this month's ETF launches has much of the crypto community wondering what happened to "buy the rumor, buy the news"?!
Why it matters: These cries of disappointment show a blindspot in the industry's understanding of how Wall Street picks up new things, Crystal writes.
- It's only been a few days since bitcoin ETFs debuted. As of Day 13, the launch of the nine products has failed to send bitcoin prices to the moon.
- In fact, bitcoin's price has fallen 18%.
But, but but: Don't blame the ETFs.
- In aggregate, accounting for selling too, they've seen at least a billion dollars rush in.
- "You can't make the price go down when you're buying," Matt Hougan, Bitwise Asset Management's chief investment officer and ETF expert, tells Axios.
The big picture: If anything, blame the hype around ETFs for the lackluster price action in bitcoin.
- Folks trying to front-run the launch piled in pre-approval and now appear to be unwinding those trades as expectations overestimated short-term bitcoin sales.
- "I still think it's a 'buy the rumor, buy the news' event, but to see it you need to scale out," Hougan says.
Zoom in: Buying of the new ETF products will likely come in stages.
- The first wave will bring the traders. The second, registered investment advisers, and the third, the brokerage platforms, Hougan adds.
- "The long-term buyers of ETFs are financial advisers and institutions, and they don't buy on Day 1."
Between the lines: A single financial adviser sitting in Des Moines might be extremely bullish on bitcoin, but that adviser couldn't simply park his clients' dollars in the new ETFs at launch, Hougan explains.
- First, they'd have to arrange meetings with clients, talk about whether it belongs in their portfolio and discuss how to execute positions.
- That doesn't factor in the time it would take to do due diligence on those ETFs, discussions with compliance, Hougan says — and that's the best case in terms of timeline.
- Most advisers work with a larger shop, which means waiting for that broker-dealer to do their due diligence, including watching how these different new ETFs trade over time, Hougan says.
The bottom line: "We haven't felt the real force of ETF buying," he says.
Quick take: The revolution may come yet, but if it does, it will come s l o w ly.
👣 2. Culture hash: Bitwise does a very crypto thing
Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios
Magic internet money can be checked to make sure it's all there, Crystal writes.
- (That's what blockchain does.)
Driving the news: Bitwise Asset Management published the wallet addresses of its new bitcoin ETF, ticker BITB, earning praise and a little bit more from the community.
What they're saying: Hougan explained that Bitwise is "trying to bring the best of the crypto world and the TradFi world with the ETF."
- That is, low fees. And now, blockchain-enabled transparency.
The other side: Gold ETF holders, for example, would rely on statements, on paper or otherwise.
The intrigue: Crypto liked Bitwise's move so much that someone sent 6,969 satoshis to the Bitwise ETF.
💭 Crystal's thought bubble: I wouldn't be surprised if other ETF shops follow suit, because the ETF feature would cost nothing to roll out and help start conversations about how blockchain works.
🥲 3. Charted: GBTC collateral damage

There's another hunk of Grayscale Bitcoin ETF shares that could be forcibly sold, Crystal writes.
State of play: Gemini and Genesis have been fighting over 62 million GBTC originally posted as collateral for Gemini's Earn customers' "loans."
Zoom in: Those 232,000 customers who signed up to earn yield on their crypto look like the collateral damage as the Geminemesis beef continues and GBTC shares are up substantially from late 2022.
- 👆 See.
Flashback: If Gemini hadn't foreclosed on a 30 million tranche of GBTC shares on Nov. 16, 2022, that slug would now be worth more than the $765.9 million Earn customers are owed, per court filings.
- Yes, but: Because Genesis is arguing Gemini wasn't supposed to do that, and wants to renege on a second tranche of 31 million shares, Gemini is suing, saying because of Genesis, Gemini can't distribute the $284.3 million it has in proceeds.
- Adversary proceedings tend to lengthen bankruptcies.
Of note: Either way, that second tranche will be sold for Gemini Earn or for Genesis' creditors — after a court approves.
- Neither Gemini nor Genesis' lawyers responded to emailed queries.
The bottom line: It hurts, because of how much GBTC has gained since the beef began, and hurts more, because those gains are drawing out the fighting.
🚀 4. Catch up quick
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
🦏 Swiss crypto bank Sygnum closed a $40 million funding round, pushing its valuation to $900 million. (CoinDesk)
🥲 OKX said it will compensate users after its OKB token's flash crash Tuesday. (Unchained Crypto)
🚗 Tesla's still holding its bitcoin. (The Block)
🍏 5. Worldcoin's next look
Worldcoin's orb. Photo: Kia Kokalitcheva/Axios
Worldcoin, the Sam Altman project that aims to replace easy-to-crack passwords with biometric identification, is getting a new look, Crystal writes.
What's happening: The company behind Worldcoin will debut an upgraded orb that will "look like an Apple product," Tools for Humanity CEO Alex Blania said last night at a StrictlyVC event in San Francisco.
Crystal's thought bubble: 👀
This newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Carolyn DiPaolo.
😔 BTC is still under $40K. —B&C
Sign up for Axios Crypto

Brady Dale covers crypto and blockchain impacts on markets and regulation.



